| What peak oil means to every
American
By TOM UDALL
Saturday, February 18, 2006 6:24 AM CST
In 1970, oil production within the United
States peaked -- reached its maximum production rate -- at not much more
than 10 million barrels of oil per day. That means since 1970, oil
production in this country has been declining, and we now import 58 percent
of the oil we use. The sheer scale of the American appetite for petroleum is
difficult to grasp: Per capita, each of us consumes about 20 pounds of
petroleum products each day.
With demand rising and production that we can control falling, our
dependence on imported oil has become an economic, diplomatic and security
nightmare. We now send $25 million an hour abroad to pay for foreign oil,
and some of that money is diverted to the same jihadi terrorists we are
spending additional billions to fight. For these and other reasons, Rep.
Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., and I founded the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus in
October 2005.
A crisis looms if we do not begin preparing
for the day when world oil production peaks. And that day is coming, most
likely within four to eight years. Peak oil is a fact, not a theory, and the
logic is simple. World oil production has been increasing for more than 140
years. But you have to discover oil before you can produce it. Global
discoveries peaked 40 years ago, so the production peak will necessarily
follow. Oil production in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing nations in the
world has already peaked.
The world now consumes 84 million barrels of oil per day, and it is true
that there will be enough oil produced this year and the next to meet global
demand. But thereafter, depletion is likely to gain the upper hand as global
production flattens and begins to decline.
Peak oil does not mean we are running out of oil. Indeed, at peak, society
will recover and refine more oil than ever before. But once oil production
begins to decline, prices are likely to rise sharply, with some mainstream
experts predicting a doubling or tripling by 2015. What we are running out
of is cheap oil -- the $20 per barrel oil around which we have designed our
automobiles, our subdivisions, the American way of life. Cheap oil, in
conjunction with Yankee ingenuity and the entrepreneurial spirit, has been
the wellspring for our current prosperity.
When world oil production peaks at 88 or 90 or 94 million barrels a day, we
will move from the era of cheap oil to an era of more expensive oil. An
economy based on the availability of oil, as we've known it, will no longer
make sense. Looking ahead, we need 10 to 15 years to develop and implement a
new energy policy before the shock of peak oil arrives.
Oil provides 40 percent of the world's energy, and some people argue that
market forces will make alternative fuels more competitive. This is wishful
thinking. None of the currently available alternative sources of liquid
fuels is anywhere near ready to replace oil in the volumes we use it today.
Happy talk about hydrogen and other mythical elixirs will not save the day.
Solar, wind, and biofuels all have significant potential but still represent
far less than 10 percent of our current energy portfolio in the United
States.
So what do we do? A few years ago, Vice President Cheney said, "Conservation
may be a sign of personal virtue, but it is not a sufficient basis for a
sound, comprehensive energy policy." He could not be more wrong. Our future
prosperity now depends on a rapid increase in energy conservation.
Conserving energy is patriotic; indeed, it's one of the most patriotic
things any of us can do.
The storm is gathering. There's a lot of work to do and not much time to do
it. We've got to replace 200 million vehicles with far more efficient ones.
If we are smart about this, we can rebuild Detroit, now rapidly going broke,
in the process. We've got to own up to the fact that transporting goods and
people by rail is at least five times more efficient than cars and trucks.
Therefore, we must revive and reinvest in our passenger and freight rail
systems. We must accelerate our deployment of wind and solar power, while
launching a massive, long-term investment in advanced energy research.
President Kennedy challenged the nation to reach the moon in less than a
decade, and we did. If we are serious about defending the nation and
preserving our prosperity, energy security and energy conservation must be
our new watchwords, our new space program.
Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., is a senior member of the House Resources Committee,
he is in his fourth term representing northern New Mexico. His Web site is
www.tomudall.house.gov
Click Here for Mr. Udall Webpage on Peak Oil
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